We like the SMU Mustangs to defeat the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

A 40-10 wins over Stanford last week helped improve SMU to 6-1 on the season. They've now won four straight games and their only loss was against an undefeated BYU team.

Duke are 6-1 too. But, they've looked sloppy over the past three weeks, beating UNC by just one after being down 20-0, losing to Georgia Tech by double digits and only knocking off an FSU team by a score of 23-16.

SMU have a 9-0 SU/6-3 ATS record in their last nine games played as a road favorite.

The Duke Blue Devils are just 1-5 SU/ATS as a home underdog between +10 and +25.

SMU ranks among the countries best offenses while Duke's is very mediocre.

This is the toughest team that Duke will have faced all season. With their recent struggles, we're going with the Mustangs minus the points.

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