This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cincinnati Reds.

After losing the first two games of this series, and with what is clearly the superior starter backing it today, I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done in the finale. Cincinnati turns to Johnny Cueto (13-6, 2.04 ERA) whose .183 opponent batting average and third ranked ERA have seen him win three straight starts, including five in a row at home. Most recently Cueto and the Reds destroyed Cleveland 9-2 on Tuesday, going a complete game while holding the Tribe to five hits; note that Cueto is 3-1 with a 4.46 ERA in six starts against the Fish. The Marlins haven't swept in Cincinnati since 2003 and with Brad Hand (2-3, 4.03 ERA) on the hill for the visitors, I don't see that record being broken today. Hand hasn't been horrible, just not spectacular in going 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA over seven starts in the rotation. Hand has been a pleasant surprise for Miami, but I think runs into a buzzsaw today in this extremely focused home side. Cueto gets the clear nod on the bump and when taking into account the rest of the above situational factors, all signs do indeed point to the REDS as the sharp wager in this one.

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