Play: Under
Rating: 8/10*

The Boston Celtics will host the Orlando Magic Friday night, and the total is set way too high IMO. Four of the last five head-to-head meetings may have gone over the total, but note that only of those games had a total as high as this, and guess what; it went under.

This is also a great situational spot for an under. The Celtics will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 103-100 home loss as a 7.5-point favorite against Milwaukee, and the under is 13-3-1 in Celtics last 17 games following a ATS loss and 9-3-2 in their last 14 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Magic meanwhile fell 114-106 in overtime against Oklahoma City (a game that went under the total despite OT) and the under is 4-0 in Magic last four games following a straight up loss.

We also have favorable day of the week trends with under is 5-1 in Celtics last six Friday games and 13-3 in Magic last 16 Friday games.