The New York Mets have lost eight of their last nine games and I don't like their chances here, coming up against a Phillies team which is 15-5 at Citizens Bank Park on the season. Philly scored 32 runs in its four-game sweep of San Francisco to start the week and I predict its bats to have plenty of success tonight as well.

The Mets hand the ball to Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) who held the Rockies to just one run on three hits and struck out five over six innings last Sunday, but note that he had posted a 6.39 ERA in his previous three starts. The Phillies have owned southpaw all season and are 14-2 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA) will take the ball for the home team for his seventh start in a Phillies uniform. Arrieta is 2-2 with a 2.30 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets and held the Nats to one run on two hits through six innings his last time out.

Mets are 1-6 in Matz's last seven road starts and 2-9 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Free pick on Philadelphia Phillies.

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