The Texas Longhorns are 5-2 on the season with losses to LSU and Oklahoma. No shame in that, and I like them as a small road favorite against a TCU team that is coming off back-to-back road losses at Iowa State and Kansas State. Sure, the Horned Frogs had a bye week in between, but the losses mean that they're now just 3-3 on the season.

The Horned Frogs own the conference's No. 1-ranked defense and have allowed just 181.0 passing yards per game, but here they'll be asked to slow down Texas QB Sam Ehlinger who has thrown for 210 yards or more in every game and has a 21/3 TD/INT ratio. Ehlinger is coming off a 399 passing yards performance with four touchdowns and one interception in a 50-48 win over Kansas.

TCU meanwhile prefers to move the ball on the ground, but while Texas rush defense (or defense overall) is far from the best in the nation I just don't see TCU being able to keep pace with the Longhorns explosive offense.

Longhorns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in October.

10* play on Texas Longhorns.