The Denver Broncos led by 20 at the half at Minnesota last week but somehow managed to get outscored by 24 points after the intermission. They still covered the 10-point spread and I like them to keep it close here against the Buffalo Bills.

While Denver failed to fully contain Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins who finished the game with 319 passing yards on 29-of-35 passing, Bills QB Josh Allen is just not that guy. I don't see Buffalo having much success on the ground either with Denver being one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping the run allowing just 3.9 yards per rush attempt which goes down to 3.3 ypra over its last three games.

On the other side of the ball, Denver is more than capable of moving the sticks on the ground and Buffalo ranks 27th for run defense efficiency.

Denver is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season and of its seven straight up losses, three have come by just two points each.

8* play on Denver Broncos.