The Minnesota Twins are a rather sizable favorite in Game 1 of this best-of-three American League wild-card series, but I think they'll prove well worth the price.

Minnesota righty Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA) has been lights out pretty much whenever and wherever he has pitched this season, but even more so at Target Field where is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in five starts. This will be Astros' right-hander Zack Greinke's (3-3, 4.03 ERA) first start against the Twins of the season, but note his 1-4 record with a 5.14 ERA in seven career starts at Target Field.

Do not underestimate the home advantage here as Minnesota finished a major-league-best 24-7 at home while Houston finished with a 9-23 road record.

Astros are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Twins are 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

8* play on Minnesota Twins.