The Minnesota Twins are coming off a 7-5 upset win on Tuesday thanks to a three-run, ninth-inning homer. The Twins are still only 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog, and I think they're at a major disadvantage on the mound today.

Minnesota left-hander Charlie Barnes (0-1, 1.93 ERA) has only one major league appearance. He's unlikely to eat a lot of innings, and then he'll hand over the ball to one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues. Sure, Reds relievers are not top of the line either, but starter Luis Castillo (5-10, 4.22 ERA) is solid and his season ERA drops to 3.94 home at Great American Ball Park.

Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. Reds are 14-5 in their last 19 games as a home favorite. Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.

10* play on Cincinnati Reds -1.5.