The set-up: The 5-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals won't be playing postseason football for the first time since the 2010 season. They travel to Houston on Christmas Eve night to take on the 8-6 Houston Texans, who enter Week 16 tied with the Tennessee Titans for first place in the AFC South. The Titans play at Jacksonville earlier in the day, so the Texans will know the result of that contest before kick-off.

Cincinnati: Not much has gone right for the Bengals in 2016 but after their 14-point victory over the winless Cleveland Browns on Oct. 23, which left them 3-4, the Bengals still had hopes in the NFC North. However, they endured an 0-3-1 stretch with a mere minus-11 point differential. Cincy's season is over but QB Andy Dalton said, "For us, we're going to do whatever we can to win these last two. So we're preparing the same way we always do. We have to come out and play our best." The Bengals c an still paly the role of spoiler in each of their final two games, here vs. the Texans and in Week 17 vs. the Ravens. Head coach Marvin Lewis is not considering resting the starters. "No. No," he told reporters. "Our thought is to win these last two football games with the best players we can put out there to play, and that's what we owe to everybody. This isn't junior high school." Included in that is Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green, who sat out the last four games with a hamstring injury but returned to practice this week and could play on Saturday. Without Green, Dalton seems like an average QB.

Houston: After watching backup QB Tom Savage rally the Texans to victory last Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, head coach Bill O'Brien named Savage as his starter over deposed Brock Osweiler for Saturday night's pivotal game. "As I said (Sunday), we don't make decisions based on anything other than what's best for the team," O'Brien said, referencing in part the wage gap between Osweiler, who is in the first season of a four-year, $72 million contract, and Savage, a fourth-round pick still on his rookie deal. "We make decisions on what we think is the best way to help the team, what helps the team win. I think that (Sunday) and this week, I feel like Tom Savage gives us the best chance to win. I'm going to give him a week to prepare as the starter, see what he can do for us on Saturday night against the Bengals. Osweiler is last among 31 qualifying QBs with an average of 5.75 yards per attempt and tied for second in the league with 16 interceptions, prompting O'Brien to make the change. Savage threw for 260 yards and averaged 7.2 per attempt in his chance against the Jaguars and is prepared for the opportunity to start again. "I'm always, each week going in there, prepared be the starter," Savage told reporters. "That's kind of the mindset I always have, just so when those situations come, you're not startled, you're ready to go in there and make some plays for the team."

The pick: I believe the Bengals are a dangerous team these last two weeks. They fell apart last week against Pittsburgh (led 20-9 at the half but lost 24-20!) but if the Bengals can stop Houston RB Lamar Miller (1,031 yards), the Texans with Brock Osweiler (or now Savage), are not likely to beat you. More bad news for the Texans is that Miller left the last game with an ankle injury and it is unclear if he will play against the Bengals on Saturday. If Green can get back, I really ‘love' the Bengals. Either way, Cincy is a 10* play.