PREMIUM
Rogers' 3-Game Saturday SWEEPER PASS
(NFL) Miami vs. Buffalo,
Point Spread: 5.50 | -110.00 Miami (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 5.50 | -110.00 Miami (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: The Miami Dolphins won an impressive cold-weather game 34-13 in Week 15 at New Jersey against the Jets and now at 9-5, head to upstate New York to take on the 7-7 Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins have won eight of their last nine games and control their fate in the AFC wild-card race. They can clinch their first playoff berth since 2008 (and just their second in the last seasons) with a win at Buffalo and a Denver loss in Kansas City. The Bills have not been officially eliminated from playoff contention but need to win their final two games and get a lot of help in a bid to end their 16-year postseason drought, the longest in the NFL.
Miami: The Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill in the team's Week 14 win over the Cardinals but veteran Matt Moore stepped in last week at the Jets and led them to an easy win. Moore completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT for a QB rating 126.2. While he won't likely be able to replicate that performance it should be noted that the last time the Dolphins won in Buffalo (back in 2011), Moore was Miami's starting QB and he threw two TD passes in that 30-23 win. These teams met back in Week 8 and the Dolphins came back from an 11-point deficit in the late third quarter to win, 28-25. RB Jay Ajayi had 214 of the Dolphins' 256 rushing yards that game but has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings, averaging only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four.
Buffalo: Rex Ryan, as he usual does, promised he'd get the Bills back into the playoffs right away after he arrived before the 2015 season. However, the Bills were 8-8 last year and as noted above, the Bills would need a YUGE amount of good fortune to fulfill Ryan's promise here in 2016. The Bills are the NFL's top rushing team at 163.6 YPG (on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs. However, QB Tyrod Taylor is an enigma. He hasn't made many mistakes (14-6 TD-to-INT ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st in passing at 182.6 YPG. The Bills have a big decision to make by March, when they will have to decide whether to pick up the option on a five-year, $90 million contract extension that guarantees Taylor more than $30 million over the first two seasons. Now we all know Ryan is a supposed "defensive expert" but one couldn't tell by Buffalo's numbers in 2016, as the Bills are in the middle-of-the-pack at 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG).
The pick: History tells us that the Dolphins have lost four straight years in Buffalo, the last three times by 16, 19 and 19 points, while averaging just 9.0 PPG themselves. However, Miami is on an 8-1 SU run entering this game and the Bills are no better than 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) at home here in 2016. Take the points and make Miami an 8* play.
Miami: The Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill in the team's Week 14 win over the Cardinals but veteran Matt Moore stepped in last week at the Jets and led them to an easy win. Moore completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT for a QB rating 126.2. While he won't likely be able to replicate that performance it should be noted that the last time the Dolphins won in Buffalo (back in 2011), Moore was Miami's starting QB and he threw two TD passes in that 30-23 win. These teams met back in Week 8 and the Dolphins came back from an 11-point deficit in the late third quarter to win, 28-25. RB Jay Ajayi had 214 of the Dolphins' 256 rushing yards that game but has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings, averaging only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four.
Buffalo: Rex Ryan, as he usual does, promised he'd get the Bills back into the playoffs right away after he arrived before the 2015 season. However, the Bills were 8-8 last year and as noted above, the Bills would need a YUGE amount of good fortune to fulfill Ryan's promise here in 2016. The Bills are the NFL's top rushing team at 163.6 YPG (on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs. However, QB Tyrod Taylor is an enigma. He hasn't made many mistakes (14-6 TD-to-INT ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st in passing at 182.6 YPG. The Bills have a big decision to make by March, when they will have to decide whether to pick up the option on a five-year, $90 million contract extension that guarantees Taylor more than $30 million over the first two seasons. Now we all know Ryan is a supposed "defensive expert" but one couldn't tell by Buffalo's numbers in 2016, as the Bills are in the middle-of-the-pack at 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG).
The pick: History tells us that the Dolphins have lost four straight years in Buffalo, the last three times by 16, 19 and 19 points, while averaging just 9.0 PPG themselves. However, Miami is on an 8-1 SU run entering this game and the Bills are no better than 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) at home here in 2016. Take the points and make Miami an 8* play.
