The set-up: The 10-5 Atlanta Falcons have clinched the NFC South title but can still claim the No. 2 NFC seed and earn a week off when they host the 7-8 New Orleans Saints on Sunday in the final regular-season game at the Georgia Dome. As for the Saints, they are just looking to avoid a third straight 7-9 season.
New Orleans: The Saints remain one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league, as the age-less Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (4,858) and has thrown for 35 TDs against just 14 INTs. The offense has torched the last two opponents, scoring 79 points and averages 29.1 PPG (2nd-best), while leading the NFL in total yards at 422.9 YPG. WR Brandin Cooks has 12 receptions for 284 yards and two TDs the last two games (75 catches and 8 TDs). Rookie Michael Thomas leads with 82 catches (also 8 TDs) and RB Ingram is poised to top 1,000 yards (940 so far, averaging 5.1 YPC). However, the running game is middle-of-the-road, averaging 107.3 YPG (18th). As usual, the Saints' downfall has been a defense allowing 27.7 PPG (30th) on 369.4 YPG (25th).

Atlanta: Matt Ryan was coming off a frustrating 2015 but has put up MVP-like numbers, passing for 4,613 yards with 34 TDs and just seven INTs to post a league-best QB rating of 115.5 .Star WR Julio Jones has fought injuries but still has 76 receptions for 1,313 yards with five TDs. The Falcons own a terrific RB duo in Devonta Freeman (983 rushing yards with 10 TDs and 49 catches with 2 TDs) and Tevin Coleman (476 rushing yards with 8 TDs and 28 catches with 2 TDs) .Atlanta ranks 7th with 119.1 YPG on the ground, nicely complementing Ryan, as the Falcons lead the NFL by scoring 33.5 PPG. The Falcons' D is no bargain, allowing 24.9 PPG (25th) on 364.4 yPG (23rd) but has come up with big plays when needed, including a league-high 14 1/2 sacks from LB Vic Beasley.

The pick: Sometimes a game that looks/feels like a 'dead-nuts' over just is...The Over is a 10* play.