The set-up: The 30-19-6 Ottawa Senators trail the first-place Canadiens by just four points in the Atlantic Division (with three games in hand), as they prepare to visit the 26-19-11 Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night.

Ottawa: The Senators are coming off a 3-0 win at New Jersey on Thursday night, which kickid off a stretch in which they will play on the road six times in a seven-game span. "We need to take care of ourselves and not focus on what other teams are doing," Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson said. "I feel we've done a good job to put ourselves in this position. We're happy where we are, but we're here to win games. At the end of the day, as long as we do our job, we should be pretty satisfied." I'm not sure what he's talking about, as after the Senators ended January by losing three of four, their February 'surge' has them just 4-3 this month!

Toronto: While he Senators are second in the Atlantic Division with 66 points, the Maple Leafs are fourth with 63. The Leafs are hardly surging themselves, having gone 3-5-2 in their past 10. Toronto could be without one of its top offensive players as rookie Mitch Marner, who leads the team with 48 points, missed practice Friday after hurting his shoulder while falling into the boards at Columbus on Wednesday.

The pick: The Senators are 6-1-0 in their last seven meetings against the Maple Leafs, including a 3-2 shootout victory in Toronto on Jan. 21st, in the most recent meeting. I expect another tight game and a low-scoring one. The Under is a 10* play.