The set-up: No one is catching Villanova in the Big East but 22-6 Butler is 11-5 in Big East play and has established itself as the league's second-best team (is currently ranked No.22 in the AP poll). Xavier opened as the AP's seventh-ranked team in the preseason but after a 13-2 start, the Minutemen have lost eight of 13 to enter this game out of the top-25 at 18-10 and just 8-7 in league play.

Butler: I guess it's fair to say Butler has established itself as the Big East's second-best team, considering the Bulldogs just won 83-78 at Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bulldogs won despite making only four their 19 three-pointers plus assisted on only six of 23 FGs! Oh, did I fail to mention that Butler also beat the defending champs back on Jan 4th at home, 66-58! A pair of 6-7 players lead Butler in scoring, Martin (15.7 & 5.8), who comes of the bench, and Chrabascz (11.3-4.7-3.1). Six others contribute between 5.4 and 10.0 PPG.

Xavier: The Musketeers limp into this contest on a four-game losing streak, as the team is creeping dangerously close to the NCAA Tournament bubble. "We have to get better," Xavier coach Chris Mack said. "We can pinpoint why, but I am more worried about what we have to do to get better. It seems like it has been a long time since we won a game. Our job is not going to get any easier Sunday, but we have to do what we can and fight back and get in the win column." Bluiett (17.8 & 5.7) and Sumner (15.0-4.3-5.) are both 6-6 and Macura (14.5 & 4.4) is 6-5, giving Xavier quite a perimeter trio but lately, the Musketeers just haven't gotten the job done.

The pick: A fifth consecutive loss certainly wouldn't look good on Xavier's at-large resume but catching Butler off its win at Villanova may be just what the doctor ordered. However, I'm sticking with the Over as an 8* play, rather than quite trusting Xavier.