The set-up: MAC First round tournament action opens Monday with eight schools playing in four games at campus sites (better record gets home court). The #10 seed Bowling Green Falcons (7-11 in MAC) will play at the #7 seed Toledo Rockets (9-9). Each team won at home, Toledo 85-73 and then Bowling Green 104-104 in OT.

Bowling Green: The Falcons own a balanced team with four guards scoring between 8.0 and 12.9 PPG. That group is led by Denny (12.9), who also adds 5.1 RPG. The 6-10 Wiggins (10.0 & 8.0) is the team's top rebounder an best frontcourt player.

Toledo: The Rockets don't have the Falcons' balance but Williams (19.7) will be the game's best backcourt performer, while the 6-9 Taylor (15.6-12.5-3.8) its best frontcourt player (he leads Toledo in assists!).

The pick: Toledo is 11-4 SU at home but just a modest 7-6 ATS. I expect the Rockets to prevail but the balance of BG makes taking the points the way to go. Bowling Green is an 8* play.