The set-up: Danny Manning took the Wake Forest job prior to the 2014-15 season and had two lean years in which Wake was 13-19 and 11-19, going a combined 7-29 in ACC play. However, 2016-17 has been a breakthrough season, with Wake winning 19 games and going 9-9 in ACC regular season play, good enough to earn Wake Forest its first trip to the Big Dance since 2009-10. Kansas State's Bruce Weber knows a little something about NCAA visit, starting with back-to-back appearances with Southern Illinois in 2002 and '03. Then it was on to Illinois where he went to six in nine seasons including finishing second to North Carolina in 2005 with a 37-2 record. He took Kansas St. to NCAA trips in his first two seasons ('13 & '14) but 15-17 and 17-16 seasons followed. However, the Wildcats ended a two-year NCAA Tournament drought this season despite an 8-10 mark in Big 12 play, 'sneaking' into the field of 68 largely on the strength of three top-25 victories, two over Baylor and one against West Virginia.

Wake Forest: The 6-10 John Collins won the Big 12's Most Improved Player award and finished second in the ACC Player of the Year balloting, ranking third in the ACC in scoring (18.9 points) as well as second in rebounding (9.8) and first in field-goal percentage (62.0%). He's got a 6-10 partner up front in Mitoglou (9.0 & 6.2) plus the 6-6 Arians adds 8.3 PPF but just 1.9 RPG. The starting guards are Crawford (16.1-3.8-5.4) and Woods (12.8-4.3-3.5). Crawford and Collins are the first Wake Forest duo since Tim Duncan and Childress to record 500 points in the same season.

Kansas State: Weber's team has great balance, as all five starters score between 9.4 and 12.5 PPG. Brown (11.7) and Stokes (11.6 & 4.3 APG) are the guards with the 6-7 Iwundu (12.5-6.4-3.4) leading the team in scoring up front. He's joined by the 6-9 Johnson (11.2 & 5.8) and the 6-10 Wade (9.4 & 4.6) plus Sneed is a 6-5 small forward (7.4 & 2.6) coming off the bench.

The pick: Wake is a high scoring team (82.7 PPG ranks 16th) but one which also allows too many points (77.9 PPG ranks 301st). Kansas State scores about 11 PPG less than Wake at 71.7 PPG but also allows 11 PPG less, at 66.9 PPG (56th). Coming down the stretch, KSU held Texas Tech to 48 points in its regular season finale, then upset Baylor 70-64 in the Big 12 tourney, before losing 51-50 to West Va. Doing the math, the Wildcats have allowed 54.0 PPG in their last three. Defense wins this time of year! Kansas State is a 10* play.