The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers were one of MLB's surprise teams in the first half, taking a 5 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over the defending champion Cubs into the All star break. Let's remember, this team won just 73 games in 2016 and 68 in 2015. That said, most felt the Cubs would eventually "get their act together" and I imagine most observers felt that Brewers would at some time in 2017's second half, be faced with a "regression to the mean." Well, the Cubs have gone 6-0 since the break, while the Brewers, after winning their first two contests after the break, have gone on to lose five in a row. Milwaukee continues itt 10-game road trip with three against the Philadelphia Phillies beginning Friday, with its lead in the NL Central having dwindled to just one game over the Chicago Cubs. More bad news for Milwaukee comes in the fact that after Pittsburgh completed a four-game sweep of Milwaukee with a 4-2 victory on Thursday, the Pirates closed to within three of the Brewers. Hard to have anything nice to say about the Phillies though, as Philadelphia opens this series with MLB's worst record (32-61) and its third-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2148).

The pitching matchup: Matt Garza (4-4 & 3.84 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Aaron Nola (6-6 & 3.54 ERA) for Philadelphia. Garza has made 14 starts in 2017 and the Brewers have gone 7-7. Garza allowed one run, three hits and three walks while striking out one in five innings of Milwaukee's 5-2 loss to Philadelphia on Sunday, leaving him 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Phillies (teams are 4-6). Nola permitted two runs, seven hits and two walks while striking out seven in six innings of the Phillies' 3-2 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday and is now 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts versus the Brewers (team is 2-1). Nola has become Philly's best pitcher of late, going 4-3 with a 2.65 ERA in his last eight starts, lowering his ERA by 1.52 during that span.

The pick: The Brewers desperately need to "take care of business" in this three-game series at Philly, as the team wraps up the month with a three-game series in Washington against the Nats and then has a three-game home series with the Cubs. However, I want no part of a this floundering Milwaukee team which has scored just 11 runs in losing five in a row and faces Nola, who owns a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts. Make the Philles a 10* play.