The set-up: North Carolina opened the season losing to Cal (allowed 35 points) and Louisville (allowed 47 points). The Tar Heels rolled over ODU 53-23 on Sep. 16 but then dropped five straight games (also 0-5 ATS) before hanging tough against Miami on Oct. 28, before losing a sixth consecutive game, 24-19 (UNC covered as a 21-point home dog). The 1-8 Tar Heels (0-6 in the ACC) had last Saturday off and Thursday night travel to Heinz Field against the 4-5 Pittsburgh Panthers (2-3 in the ACC). The Panthers have won their last two games, beating Duke and Virginia, giving them a chance of earning a 10th straight trip to a bowl game with two wins in their last three games. The good news is that North Carolina has just one win this season and limps in on a six-game slide but the bad news is that the Tar Heels have won the last four games in the series and since 2013, are the only team the Panthers have not defeated in the Coastal division.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels played hard against the 'Canes, out-gaining Miami 428-415 in yards but had four giveaways. North Carolina hasn't done much offensively, except in the team's lone win, when they scored 53 points. Despite that output, North Carolina is averaging just 21.3 PPG (110th) on 344.2 YPG (109th). Nathan Elliot replaced injured starter Chazz Surratt in the first half of the Miami game at QB, completing 16-of-39 passes for 173 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. However, he also ran for 79 yards and caught a 33-yard pass. Both Surratt and particularly Harris (1 TDP / 8 INTs) have struggled. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 33.4 PPG (105th) on 447.1 YPG (111th).

Pittsburgh: In the team's back-to-back wins, the Panthers may just have finally found a replacement for RB James Conner. Conner ran for 3,733 yards on 5.6 YPC during his four-year career with the Panthers, including a 1,765-yard, 26 TD season in 2014. Darrin Hall is a junior who had carried the ball only 131 times in 2 1/2 years but broke out for 254 yards in Pitt's 24-17 victory at Duke on Oct. 21 and followed that up with 111 yards on 25 carries in a 31-14 victory against Virginia on Oct. 28. Quarterback Ben DiNucci looks to have the No. 1 job now, although he's no better than Browne (Pitt ranks 77th with 218.4 YPG through the air). The Pitt D has allowed 27.9 PPG (74th) on 425.0 YPG (94th).

The pick: The Tar Heels do enter on a six-game slide but their last game vs. unbeaten Miami (currently No. 7 in the CFP rankings) showed the team can compete. Meanwhile, despite back-to-back wins, Pittsburgh is just 5-13 ATS its last 18 games at home. Don't forget, North Carolina has won the last four games in the series. Make the Tar Heels a 10* play.