The set-up: The Gildan New Mexico Bowl will be contested at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico and features the 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd (4-4 in C-USA East) and the 7-5 Colorado State Rams (5-3 in the MWC-Mountain Division). Marshall had a great start to their season, opening with a 6-1 record (a favorable schedule helped). However, the Thundering Herd struggled down the stretch, losing four of their last five games. The Rams struggled down the stretch as well, losing three of their last four but this game marks the school's fifth consecutive bowl appearance (2-2).

Marshall: QB Chase Litton who completed 60.6% of his passes while averaging 237.8 YPG (58th). He has 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Litton has now started 33 contests for the Thundering Herd, throwing 70 TD passes against 29 interceptions, His top targets are a pair of first-team All-Conference USA selections in WR Tyre Brady (56 catches / 7 TDs), a transfer from Miami, and TE Ryan Yurachek (47 catches / 9 TDs). Overall, the offense averaged 26.3 YPG (81st) on 370.1 YPG (94th). The Marshall ground game averaged.a modest 132.3 YPG (104th), as RBs King (714 yards) and Davis (671 yards) combined for 11 TDs. The defense comes in allowing 19.2 PPG (17th) on 337.3 YPG (24th) but I'll have more on that later.

Colorado State: The Rams own a potent offense led by QB Nick Stevens, who completed 63.6% of his passes for 27 TDs and 10 INTs while averaging 289.9 YPG through the air (ranks 23rd). Michael Gallup has 94 catches for 1,350 yards with seven TDs, The running game (211.5 YPG ranks ) is led by the duo of Dalyn Dawkins(1,349 RY / 6.2 YPC / 8 TDs) and Izzy Matthews (588 RY / 4.8 YPC / 8 TDs). An excellent run/pass balance sees the offense averaging 33.8 PPG (29th) on 501.8 YPG (10th). The defense is allowing unimpressive figures of 27.5 PPG (73rd) on 427.8 YPG (93rd).

The pick: Marshall had success early in the season due to a light schedule and a defense which was holding opponents to an average of just 14.2 PPG. However, as the schedule toughened, the "D" had its troubles, allowing 26.2 PPG over the final five games of the season (Marshall went 1-4). I noted above the excellent balance CSU owns on offense and the last time the Rams played in the New Mexico Bowl (2013 against Washington St.), they scored 48 points! I realize that Marshall owns an FBS-best 10-2 record in NCAA-sanctioned bowl games (among teams with a minimum of four appearances), including going 5-0 since 2009. However, the Rams are just the better team in this matchup and expect Stevens and Co. to 'light up' an overrated Marshall defense. Make Colorado State an 8* play.