The set-up: The NY Mets posted a 5-1 victory in the series opener at San Diego last night. The win improves New York to 16-9, as the Mets have very early on looked as if they've put last year's injury-plagued 70-win season behind them. The Mets lead the NL East by a half-game (over the surprising Phillies) but have to be buoyed by the fact that they sit six games clear of the Nationals, who won the NL East last season and finished 27 games ahead of them. In contrast, the Padres are coming off a 71-win season in 2017 and the team's 9-18 start in 2018 has them on pace to win just 54 games! Eric Hosmer, the team's big FA acquisition in the off-season, went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return after a two-game absence due to family reasons and has produced only four RBIs in 88 at-bats (.250 BA & 2 HRs)..

The pitching matchup: Jason Vargas (2017: 18-11, 4.16 ERA) will make his 2018 debut for the Mets and San Diego will counter with Joey Lucchesi (2-1, 2.70 ERA), making it a battle of lefties. Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and figures to eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand on March 20 and is back in the majors after throwing 66 pitches in Monday's rehab start. The 35-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA in four career starts against San Diego. Lucchesi is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up four runs on five hits and four walks in five innings of a 4-2 loss to Arizona. However, he had put together three solid starts prior to that defeat, allowing just one ER over 17 innings (he was 2-0 and the team 2-1).

The pick: I realize the Mets have high expectations for Vargas but is that realistic? Vargas has been around since 2005 and owns an 85-81 record with a 4.17 ERA. He's off a "career season" in 2017 but was limited to just 12 starts in 2015 and 2016. Injuries are nothing new to Vargas. He suffered a torn labrum in his hip in 2008. In 2013, Vargas missed time with a blood clot in his left armpit. The following season, he missed time following an appendectomy and in 2015 he suffered a flexor strain before having Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. He's a huge question mark in my view. The 24-year-old Lucchesi will be facing the Mets for the first time. The Padres' fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, has made five starts and is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA. He is the only Padres pitcher with a winning record. He leads all major league rookies in ERA and opponents' on-base percentage (.283), ranks second in innings pitched (26 2/3) and opponents' batting average (.229) plus ranks third in strikeouts (29). Make San Diego a 10* play.