The set-up: Neither of these staters instills much confidence and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Covey, while the home side goes with Brad Keller.

The pitchers: Covey is so far 5-12 with a 5.44 ERA. He's made strides over the last month, but note that he's still just 2-6 with an atrocious 6.39 ERA on the road.

Keller is so far 7-6 with a 3.14 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over eight innings in a win over the Orioles on Friday. After a great run, Keller comes in off a loss against the Indians though and I think he'll continue to regress here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 17 American League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is low, play the "over."