The set-up: I think the App State has a letdown here after its 52-7 home win over South Alabama. Conversely, it's going to be "all hands on deck" for the Red Wolves after they fell in a tight 28-21 decision to Georgia Southern in its most recent action.

The teams: I think this does indeed set up as a bit of a "trap" for the Mountaineers after three straight victories. QB Zac Thomas has 896 yards and an 8/3 TD:INT. Overall Appalachian State is averaging 51.8 points per game, while allowing only 17. In my opinion, these numbers are unsustainable and are skewed due to the competition level faced.

Arkansas State is averaging 26.4 PPG and it's allowing 29.2. QB Justice Hansen was phenomenal in a losing cause last week, going for 376 yards and a TD. Note that he doesn't have an INT over his last three games and he has 1,329 passing yards and an 11/2 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas Sate is 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while App Sate is 0-5 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records. I'm not calling the outright, but I do expect a very competitive battle. Grab the points.