The set-up: These teams last met in 2016 and Arkansas State won 31-16 on the road. Georgia State comes in "rusty" here in my opinion after its bye week, before that it got blown out 37-20 by Troy. Arkansas State looks to take advantage and to get back on track after a 35-9 home loss to App State last Tuesday.

The teams: Georgia State is averaging 22.3 PPG and it's allowing 34.2. Two weeks ago the Trojans rolled up 554 yards of offense. QB Dan Ellington has 1,224 yards with five TDs and two INTs.

Arkansas State is averaging 23.5 PPG and it's allowing 30.2. QB Justice Hansen had a horrible game against App State last week, but he still has 1,538 passing with 11 TDs and five INTs.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Arkansas State is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 conference games and 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games against a team with a losing road record, while Georgia State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six conference games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. Lay the points and expect a rout.