The set-up: Despite Aaron Nola's sub-par 2019 start, I still think this is a major mismatch on the mound and because of that, I have no issues at all in laying this price. The visitors counter with Antonio Senzatela.

The pitchers: Senzatela (3-2, 5.35 ERA) gave up two runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. Over 22.1 innings of work he owns a pedestrian 13:8 K:BB. He's been better on the road than at home, but note that he's 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies.

Nola (3-0, 4.86) comes in off consecutive strong outings. Note that he's 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA at home. In fact Nola has given up just six runs over his last four starts. He's also 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA vs. the Rockies lifetime.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is just 3-8 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range this season, while Philly is 10-5 as a -150 fav or higher. I think Nola is the correct call here. Lay the price.

Philadelphia Phillies

8* play