The set-up: Green Bay comes in rested at 4-0 following its bye week. Aaron Rodgers has been spectacular in the early going, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here. Note that Green Bay allows 25.3 PPG and it's allowed just 23.3 PPG over its last three. Bucs' QB Tom Brady has been decent to this point as well. Expect Tampa to run the ball a lot here as it looks to avoid any type of a shootout with Rodgers. The Bucs have been fantastic defensively in the early going as well, allowing only 22.4 overall and 20.3 over their last three.

The pick: Finally note as well that the Packers have seen the total go under in 2 of their last seven after their bye, while the Bucs have seen the total dip under in five of their last seven after scoring 20 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a little high in my opinion, consider a second look at the "under."

This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the UNDER Packers/Bucs.