The set-up: Boise State picked up the 73-51 blowout win over Fresno State on Wednesday. I'm not predicting an outright revenge upset or anything here on Friday, but I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Broncos are the better team in every respect, so if we were to go only off of these team's records and offensive and defensive numbers, then of course most would instantly gravitate towards the better team.

The pick: But there's a lot more than just looking at numbers when gambling on sports. This spread is much too large in my opinion, as I expect the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead to a couple days off, before a tough two-game road trip at CSU. Fresno State is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. This spread is too large, the play is on the visiting side.

This is a 10* MW GOM on Fresno State.