The set-up: These teams have played to a couple of high-scoring "overs," but I expect more of a defensive affair in their third-straight game here. Tampa has a two-game set in Detroit after this, so it'll have to be cautious to not get caught looking ahead. Chicago's weakness is on the defensive side, but note that it's seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last 11 home games after scoring four or more goals in a home victory in its last outing.

The pick: The Lightning have seen the total go "under" in six of their last eight in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they allowed four or more goals in as well. Tampa still has the No. 1 ranked defense and I expect it to double-down on the end today as it looks to leave Chicago with a series victory. This one has "under" written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lightning/Hawks.