The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here.

The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays.