The set-up: This is a major mismatch on the mound. The Cubs are off a win yesterday over the Cards and I love them to do it again here. Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21 ERA) has struggled big time this year, especially on the road where he's just 1-4 with a 7.15 ERA.

The pick: Zach Davies (3-3, 4.45 ERA) comes in off his best start of the season, allowing no runs over six innings in a victory over San Diego. Davies is a solid 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA at home. Lay this price, but expect a big home side blowout.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Cubs.