The set-up: This has been a back and forth series, but after getting blown out 8-0 in Game 5, I believe that the Islanders are going to double-down on the defensive end in an attempt to stave of elimination. The Isles have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a five goals or greater road loss to an opponent as well.

The pick: Tampa looked not only great on the offensive end in scoring those eight goals, but it also looked great defensively. Do I expect the Bolts to explode for another eight goals tonight? Of course not, that was an outlier. Do I believe that Tampa's going to play "lock down" defense and get great goaltending again? That's a given. So after the offensive explosion in Game 5, Game 6 sets up as a lower-scoring "under."

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lightning/Islanders.