Phillies (Wheeler, 11-9, 3.01) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-7, 2.35)

Here are two teams still in the hunt. The Phillies have been hot and send out their ace, Zack Wheeler today. Wheeler has been in the run for the Cy Young award and has pitched the most innings in the league, but he shows all of the signs of a tired pitcher in his last starts. He is 3-3 in August with an era of 4.81. It gets worse. He has given up 15 runs in the last 20+ innings. He has been less successful on the road.

Brandon Woodruff is on the mound for the Brewers. Since a blip some starts ago, Woodruff has been very sharp, allowing only 1 run over 12 innings in his last 2 starts. He is excellent at home and in day games. The Phillies have had no success against Woodruff.

The Brewers are not a great home team, but they have dominated right-handed pitchers to the tune of 66-39. One issue today is that their usually sound bullpen has struggled mightily in their last 7 games. The Phillies offense has been potent in recent weeks, and are also successful against the right. Their bullpen has been much better with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 7 games.

These two teams haven’t faced each other since May when the Phillies swept the Brewers. I expect the Brewers are looking for a little payback this series. I like Woodruff in this game, but the Brewers’ relief tumble scares me off a bit. The under for the first five innings is low, and with Wheeler being very average of late, seems like a good bet. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.