These two fine teams have split their last two games with a very low total of three goals in each case. That may not be the case tonight. The Toronto defense is down a pair of players, and Campbell has not settled in after the break, giving up 13 goals in hs last three starts. Rangers' likely starter Shesterkin has been as hot as ever, allowing only two goals in his last two starts. The Leafs have a number of players just returning from Covid protocol, and the Rangers are a very good home team. New York may not have the firepower of the Leafs, but their defense and PK is topnotch. The Leafs are a surprisingly heavy favorite today. Shesterkin and the Rangers' defense will be the difference. Given these odds I am happy to play on the Rangers to win.