We all recall what UMBC did four years ago. The Retrievers stunned the College Basketball world by becoming the first (and still only) 16-seed to advance to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. They beat Virginia (who would go on to win the Nat’l Championship the following year) by 20 points in perhaps the most remarkable upset in NCAA history.

The stakes here are nowhere near as high. UMBC finds itself as a favorite in the first round of “The Basketball Classic,” a new postseason tournament that replaces the CIT.

UMBC had been on a nice late season run before running into Vermont in the Finals in the America East Tournament. Fortunately for the Retrievers, the team they are facing here is not in the same class as the Catamounts. It is Merrimack, out of the NEC, a team that has a losing record in 2021-22.

Merrimack only averages 59.4 points per game when it leaves home. That’s simply not going to get it done. UMBC averages 77.8 points at home. So I have zero hesitation when it comes to laying this number. Merrimack has not played since 2/26 as they were ineligible for the NEC Tournament.

UMBC is 12-4 ATS this season when facing a team that has a losing record. They’ve won 14 of those 16 games outright.