They started slow, but eventually the Jazz overwhelmed the Luka Doncic-less Mavs and took Game 1 by a score of 99-93. As you can guess from that final score, neither side shot all that well. I’m expecting better shooting tonight and thus a higher-scoring Game 2.

Let’s get the big news out of the way first. Doncic is not expected to play in Game 2. This is obviously a horrible break for the Mavs as they try to avoid starting this series by dropping two straight home games. Despite Doncic’s presumed absence, you’ve got to figure that at home the Mavs are going to shoot better than 38.2 percent, which is where they were at in Game 1. They also missed eight free throws and were 9 of 32 on three-point attempts.

Donovan Mitchell scored 30 of his team-high 32 points in the second half Saturday. Utah is one of the game’s higher scoring teams at 113.1 points per game, so they too are likely to improve their own shooting.

This total is quite low, among the lowest I’ve seen for any NBA matchup all season. It’s THE lowest for any Jazz game in 2021-22 and currently the second lowest for any Mavs’ game.

The Over is 7-1 when Utah is leading in a playoff series and I fully expect that trend to continue tonight. This number is just too low.