Despite Game 2 finishing well below the total, the O/U line remains high here for Memphis-Minnesota Game 3. It’s not nearly as high as it was for Game 2, but considering the Under hit by 20 points in that last game, I’m not sweating it. Plus I don’t think oddsmakers have properly adjusted for the series moving to Minnesota.

Timberwolves’ road games have averaged 236.5 total points this season, which would certainly seem to justify the high totals we saw in Games 1 and 2. (Game 1 did go Over, by the way). But Timberwolves’ home games have averaged only 221.6 total points this season. That is a striking split.

That split is clearly reflected in the O/U results. T’wolves road games are 31-12 to the Over. At home, it’s 21-20-1 Under.

The big difference is on the defensive end where Minnesota allows 10 fewer points per game at home than what they give up on the road. Their own scoring also declines by about five points per game.

Memphis is 8-2 to the Under in road games when the total is 230 or higher. The number is just too high.