OK. So we’re looking to make it 4-0 in the NBA Finals tonight and I like the Under. Both teams have seen a decline in their respective three-point shooting percentages each game and I don’t see the same kind of high-scoring first half (124 points) we had in the last game.

Boston playoff games have averaged just 208.8 points. Game 2 of this series, which they lost, was well below that number. But the two Celtics wins over the Warriors both went Over. This despite them holding Golden State to an average of 104 points in those two games.

The Celtics have averaged 118 points in their two wins in the series. Win or lose, I don’t think they’re hitting that number tonight. The Warriors allow just 105.6 points per game off a loss, which is slightly lower than their overall season average.

During their entire playoff run, Boston has rarely seen two straight games go Over the total. The Over hit each of the first three games in the Eastern Conference Finals (low totals), but that’s the ONLY Over streak for the Celtics in the playoffs.

Since that run of three straight Overs in the last round, the last three times the Celtics have been off an Over, the games have seen just 184, 196 and 195 total points scored. Play the Under.