The Braves are red hot. They won their 12th straight game last night, beating Washington 9-5. The win streak has last year’s World Series Champs firmly back in the Wild Card mix in the National League.

As for the Nationals, things aren’t looking so good. They are in last place in the East Division and already there’s a six game gap between them and fourth place. I’d be shocked if they escaped the basement.

But surprisingly, my numbers say to give the Nats a try today, albeit on the run line. Stephen Strasburg is scheduled to pitch (as of press time) and I expect him to be better than he was last week in Miami, his first start in just over a year. There were obviously some first-time jitters present. But Strasburg has a nice history against the Braves and this time he’ll be pitching at home.

Washington hits lefties pretty well, so I expect them to get the job done against Max Fried. Earlier in the year, the Nationals beat Fried as +195 underdogs on the money line.

Note that Washington may change starters prior to game time. I’m rolling with them regardless. I’m more confident in their ability to hit lefties than whomever the starter is. Also, the Nationals’ bullpen has been a lot better at home so far. Take the run line (+1.5) here as we’re getting solid odds.