The “never say die” Lightning have stretched the series to a sixth game at home, on the backs of Vasilevskiy and a tight style of play. They have managed to control the Av’s offense to the tune of just 2 goals allowed in their last three games, much better than I expected. They have the advantage of the final change tonight, and may have the Av’s wondering just what they have to do to beat Tampa’s goal-tender.

Kuemper has played well but not at the same standard as the Tampa net-minder. The Av’s gave up twice the number of penalties in game five and it burned them. They too will have to play a tighter game; their success came when they limited the Lightning’s shot totals in games one and two. Those totals have crept up closer to 30 lately. Kuemper’s play can’t stand the impact of too many mistakes.

I expect to see an even tighter game today. I am sticking with the total, but have been burned on the over. Find the highest available line tonight and take the under.