The two bottom teams in the NL Central meet this week at Wrigley Field. Both teams have been outscored by 77 runs this season. That’s not a good differential by any means, but it’s better than the third place Pirates, who are -100 in that department.

The Reds come in at 25-47 and are in last place in the division. But they just won two of three out in San Francisco and are a respectable 22-25 after a horrible start to the season. The Cubs have lost 15 of 20.

Luis Castillo is putting up solid numbers for Cincy, he’s just not been racking up wins. Consider there’s been only one start all season where Castillo allowed more than three earned runs. It was his last one and that was against the Dodgers. Castillo has a 0.97 WHIP on the road.

Keegan Thompson has turned in consecutive quality starts. But the two starts before that saw him allow 12 runs in 3 ⅔ innings.

All things considered, I believe the Reds to be a solid value in the opener of this three-game series.