I like Miami here. They’ve got Alcantara on the hill and he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball. With Alcantara carrying a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, you’d think that the Marlins would be better than 9-6 in his 15 starts this year. They’re not, but this price is too tempting to pass up.

Now the “elephant in the room” is Miami’s 1-10 record vs. St. Louis going back to last year. They’ve lost the first two games at Busch Stadium this week, 9-0 and 5-3. But they were expected to. Oddsmakers might still consider them an underdog today, but I believe that’s a mistake. Alcantara alone can be the difference maker.

St. Louis has Pallante pitching and he’s still unproven with just four starts under his belt. Three of his four starts have come against the Reds or Cubs.

Alcantara has never beaten the Cardinals, but does have a 0.99 ERA in four career starts against them. He’s allowed just 18 hits in those four starts with 29 strikeouts in 27.3 innings. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, two of St. Louis’ best hitters, are a combined 3 for 22 with eight strikeouts lifetime vs. Alcantara.

The Marlins are 5-0 the last five times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. Make it 6-0!