I suppose a case can be made that the Guardians were pretty lucky to win yesterday afternoon. They got to five runs despite only three hits, the last one being a walkoff homer from Andres Giminez. It was the second day in a row that Cleveland came back and won in its final at-bat.

You shouldn’t have to be told that the Yankees have been the best team in the league this year or that Gerrit Cole has been excellent. But this line seems too high given Cleveland is a playoff contender and has won each of the last three days.

The Guardians will be sending Civale to the mound. He’s been getting better with a 2.84 ERA over his most recent three starts. Civale was a little unlucky earlier in the year, but has now made three effective starts in a row and the team is 4-2 over his last six starts.

Give me Cleveland +1.5 on the run line in this matchup. I do think they can pull the upset, but Cole and the Yankees obviously deserve our respect as well. Thus my call is that it won’t be any worse than a one-run defeat for the home team.