The Nationals beat the Cubs on Tuesday, winning for the first time in 7 games. The five runs they agave up was also their lowest total against, in 7 games. Their pitching has been the worst in the league for 2 weeks running. They send out right hander Josiah Gray, who was terrific through June but has stumbled badly since, and seen his ERA soar. He allowed 6 runs in 4 innings in his last start with 4 HR.

The Cubs have been very successful at limiting runs lately but struggle to score more than a handful. They have managed to win 3 of 5 on the backs of their pitching, and have scored 11 runs in their two games vs. the Nats, an improvement of late. Left hander Justin Steele has been very sharp lately, with a 2.70 ERA in his last 7 games. He has given up just 1 run in his last 3 appearances but seldom lasts past the 5th inning. Tuesday notwithstanding, the Cubs bullpen has impressed.

Prior to the Nationals series, the Cubs have faced very stiff pitching, and we are seeing an uptick in their offense in their last two games. Gray’s issues seem serious rather than a one-off. Steele has been consistent and very good. Look for the Cubs to bounce back at home and beat up on the Nationals on Wednesday. A win is very likely but I am not comfortable with them on the run line.