Luis Castillo is living up to his vast potential with a 1.62 ERA during his past 13 starts dating back to last season. So this isn't a play-against Castillo as it is against the Reds being this large of a road favorite. Baseball is a huge value sport because of its long season. And I find value backing San Francisco.

The Giants are much tougher at home. They are going with righthander Dereck Rodriguez, who won't lack motivation coming off the worst performance of his big league career. Rodriguez isn't going to wow the Reds, but he is a grinder. I trust him to come in with a quality performance.

Cincinnati has lost 39 of its last 54 road games for a winning percentage of 28 percent. The Reds have lost 26 of their past 36 away matchups when going against a righty starter. They also are 1-5 during their last six games in San Franciso.

The Giants will be without Buster Posey, who is out with a concussion. Posey, though, is having another down season batting just .245 with two homers.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 12-2-1 on his last 15 baseball premium/free totals plays for 86 percent and has a huge MLB totals play today on the Friday card. As always, it's guaranteed to win!)