Now that the line has dropped to where I see value, I'm going to back the Yankees here. Yes, the Yankees have been playing their worst ball losing eight of their last 10. They still are vastly superior to Boston, though, having won 17 more games than the Red Sox. It's not like the Red Sox have been playing well either. They've dropped 19 of their last 26 games.

The pitching matchup is Domingo German versus Nathan Eovaldi. German is beginning to round into form coming off his best start holding the Cardinals to one run in five innings this past Saturday.

Eovaldi's 4.23 ERA is up from the past two seasons. He's had difficulty pitching at Fenway Park this season with a 6.81 ERA and 1.60 WHIP there. His barrel rate is among the worst among qualified starting pitchers. That's a major concern against a powerful Yankees squad that leads the majors in homers with 190. Eovaldi gave up two homers to the offensively-challenged Royals in his last start. The Royals rank 26th in homers.

The Yankees hold a huge bullpen edge, too. New York's relievers have a combined ERA of 2.98, second-lowest in baseball. The Red Sox rank 26th in bullpen ERA at 4.45.

New York has defeated Boston in 12 of the past 17 meetings. Look for the Yankees to get right again in this matchup.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is one of the hottest handicappers going 46-28 on his last 74 premium/free plays. Stephen is unbeaten in NFL preseason, 13-7 on his last 20 WNBA plays and is up more than 20 units in baseball this season. Stephen has plays on each of these sports today. They can be purchased individually, or at a special discounted package rate.)