PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's Bowl Game Of The Month
(NCAAF) San Diego State vs. Cincinnati,
12/24/2015 3:00 PM, Score: 42 - 7
Point Spread: -3.00 | -112.00 San Diego State (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -3.00 | -112.00 San Diego State (Away)
Result: Win
Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS.
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns.
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog.
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too.
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense.
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure.
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call.
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns.
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog.
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too.
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense.
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure.
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call.
