First off, we're talking two strong offenses here. St. Louis is No. 3 in runs scored at 5.3 per game. Texas ranks sixth and is averaging 5.4 runs in its last seven games.

Second, this should be a hitter's day with the weather hot, humid and a slight wind blowing to left. Scheduled home plate umpire Andy Fletcher is a neutral ump when it comes to over/unders, but the over has cashed six of the last eight times he has been behind the plate.

The key, though, is the starting pitching matchup of Martin Perez versus Mike Leake.

Let's begin with Perez, who is much worse on the road with a 4.38 ERA compared to 2.61 at home. He's coming off a 10-6 road victory at pitcher friendly-Oakland Coliseum where he allowed four runs in seven innings. That win ended a 14-game road winless streak for him.

Leake is just a glorified innings-eater with a high contract. The over has cashed in eight of his past 10 starts. His home ERA is 4.50. The Cardinals' bullpen is showing a lot of vulnerability, too, particularly closer Trevor Rosenthal, who has had four horrible performances in eight appearances this month.