New Mexico State: Doug Martin begins his fourth season at Las Cruces and I guess last year's 3-9 record is a step in the right direction after consecutive 2-10 seasons (the Aggies were 1-11 the year before he took over). The Aggies have had just four winning seasons since 1967 (48 years) and last made a bowl appearance back in the 1960 Sun Bowl, giving them the longest bowl drought of any program. That said, all three of New Mexico State's wins in 2015 came in the team's last five games. Don't expect a six-win season from the Aggies but more do expect more than the three wins they had last year.

UTEP: Sean Kugler, like NMSU's Martin, enters his fourth season with the Miners. His first team was just 2-10 but he led UTEP to a bowl game in 2014 (7-6 finish, after losing to Utah St.) and last year's team went 5-7. Kugler dumped both his offense and defensive coordinators after last season and this year's team returns 13 starters. UTEP avoids the top- three teams from C-USA's East division plus owns three winnable non-conference games, this being one of them.

The pick: I expect UTEP to be back 'bowling' in 2016 and while last year's team allowed 32.9 PPG on the season, UTEP allowed just 19.4 PPG in its five home games. UTEP gets seven home games this year (making my bowl prediction likely) and look for the Miners to keep a New Mexico State offense in check, as the Aggies will be without R LBarry Rose (hernia), who gained 1651 rushing yards last year (6.9 YPC) and 14 TDs. The Under is a 10* play.