The set-up: The Giants saw Bumgarner outduel Arrieta 3-2 on Saturday, giving San Francisco a chance to split its four-game series with the Cubs at Wrigley on Sunday afternoon. As noted often, the Giants owned MLB's best record at the All Star break but an awful second half (16-29 since the All-Star break) leaves them 73-62, two games back of LA in the NL West, although they still lead the NL wild-card standings by 2 1/2 games over the Cards (3 1/2 games inside the playoff ‘cut line'). The 87-48 Cubs have run away with the NL Central (9 1/2-game lead) plus also own an eight-game advantage over the Nats, for the NL's best overall record.

The pitching matchup: Johnny Cueto (14-5, 2.98 ERA) gets the ball for the Giants and John Lackey (9-7, 3.41 ERA) for the Cubs. Cueto is off a tough outing in his last start, allowing four ERs in 4 2/3 innings on Tuesday in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in his shortest outing of the season. Cueto was 13-1 at one time but in his last nine starts has gone 1-4, with the Giants going 3-6. He's 9-8 with a 3.34 ERA in 23 career starts against the Cubs (teams are 12-11). Lackey is set to make his first start since he went on the disabled list back on Aug. 15 with a right shoulder strain. He is 6-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 13 home starts but the Cubs are just 7-6. In five career starts vs. the Giants (including the postseason), he's 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA (teams are 2-3).

The pick: The Giants just don't seem likely to pull out of their post-break slump and Cueto's lack of success mirrors the team's (again, he's 1-4 and the team 3-6 in his last nine starts). The Cubs own MLB's best home record (50-20) and add to that mark, today. Make Chicago a 10* play.