The set-up: Toronto has split its past 16 games but it has not yet cost the Blue Jays first place in the AL East. Toronto lost 5-3 at the Yankees on Labor Day but the team's 77-60 record is good enough for a one game lead over the 76-61 Red Sox. As for the Yankees, they are 5 1/2 games out of first place and 3 1/2 games out in a crowded wild card field. The three-game series continues tonight at Yankee stadium with Toronto's offense in a slump, banging out just six extra-base hits (including one HR) in scoring a modest 16 runs in that 1-3 stretch, while batting only .222 as a team.

The pitching matchup: Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.88 ERA) is back on the mound for Toronto and rookie Luis Cessa (4-0, 4.17 ERA) goes for the Yankees. Cessa makes his fourth start since entering New York's rotation. As a starting pitcher, Cessa is 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA (Yanks are 3-0), going exactly six innings in each outing. Sanchez was given a brief minor-league stint in effort to limit his innings but returned last Wednesday and breezed through six innings at Baltimore, allowing an unearned run in a win. Sanchez is in his first full season as a starter and made two starts against New York in the first half, allowing one earned run in 12 2/3 innings (0.71 ERA).

The pick: The Blue Jays will host the Red Sox in a key three-game series this weekend and can ill-afford to stumble anymore in this series. I'm betting on the better team (and the better pitcher) in this contest. Toronto is an 8* play.