The set-up: The Marlins lost 4-3 to the Philadelphia Phillies last night, falling for a fifth straight time. Miami now looks to avoid a three-game home sweep by the Phillies on Wednesday, as the Marlins enter having lost 10 of their last 11. The team's slump has almost eliminated them from serious wild card contention, as Miami is currently six games out of the NL's second wild card berth. The 62-76 Phillies had dropped six in a row before running into the Marlins and are basically playing out the string of another losing campaign.

The pitching matchup: Jeremy Hellickson (10-8, 3.88 ERA) takes the mound for Philadelphia and Andrew Cashner (4-11, 5.00 ERA) for Miami. Hellickson's 3.88 ERA puts him on pace to record his lowest ERA since 2012, when he was at 3.10. However, after delivering a string of six straight starts while allowing three or fewer runs (which bridged July and August), he has hit a speed bump in his last two outings. He's allowed a total of nine ERs on 12 hits (including three HRs) and six walks over 10 innings against the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves (8.10 ERA). Cashner was acquired in a trade by the Marlins on July 28 and it's hard to characterize it as having been anything but a disaster for Miami. The Marlins sent three players, including their top hitting prospect and a potential future closer, to the Padres and got Cashner in return, who is 0-4 with a 5.57 ERA in six starts since joining Miami (Marlins are 1-5).

The pick: I guess it would be easy to go against Cashner but Hellickson has looked shaky his last two outings and it's never easy for a team like Philly, which has played .449 baseball on the season, to sweep a road series. Miami is likely out of the playoff race but I'll still back them here, to avoid the dreaded home sweep. Miami is n 8* play.