The set-up: The Blue Jays got a much-needed 3-2 win on Monday, after losing seven of their first nine games to open September. Toronto's current struggles leave them two games back of the Red Sox in the AL East but the Jays do own a one-game lead over the Orioles for the No. 1 wild card spot (Toronto is a mere two games clear of the AL playoff ‘cut line'). The Rays surprisingly still lead the season series over the Blue Jays 9-8 (with two games left between the teams) but are putting a finishing touch on an awful season which has them 60-83 overall, going minus-$2823 vs. the moneyline (only the Twins are worse).

The pitching matchup: Drew Smyly (6-11, 5.05 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay and Marcus Stroman (9-7, 4.55 ERA) goes for Toronto. Despite an ‘ugly' 6-11 record on the season, Smyly is unbeaten in his last nine starts (he's 4-0 and the Rays are 6-3), even though he's allowed 10 runs (nine earned) over 8 2/3 innings in the last two outings. Smyly is 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA in four starts against Toronto in 2016. Stroman takes the mound winless in his last four starts but in two of those outings he gave up two ERs (last Wednesday when he permitted two runs) and one ER back on August 21 at Cleveland. Stroman is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA versus Tampa Bay this season and 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA all-time vs. the Rays.

The pick: Stroman owns an unimpressive 4.93 ERA in 13 home starts in 2016 but he's 4-1 with the Blue Jays going 8-5. I played Toronto on Monday (3-2 win) and will do so again here, with the Rays falling to 25-43 on the road in 2016 last night, giving them a MLB-worst minus-$1666 road moneyline mark. Toronto is a 6* play.